The AAMC recently published a report estimating that the United States will face a physician shortage of up to 86,000 doctors by 2036.  

A variety of issues are contributing to the problem, including the lack of adequate residency slots. A bipartisan bill called the Resident Physician Shortage Reduction Act of 2023 (H.R. 2389/S. 1302) has promise but has yet to progress through Congress. The legislation would gradually increase the number of Medicare-supported residency slots by 14,000 over the course of seven years.

Other issues are at play, including an aging American population, one that requires more healthcare. Additionally, doctors who are 65 and older make up 20% of the physician workforce, and those between age 55 and 64 constitute 22%, meaning that many doctors are reaching retirement age. 

A cohort also left clinical medicine during and after the pandemic, and, in a related issue, burnout is very high for those who stayed. A whopping 49% of doctors surveyed through the annual Medscape questionnaire reported being burned out.

The opaque medical school admissions process and the very high cost of medical school are also barriers.

Anecdotally, I hear of many family members who wait weeks or even months to see a physician. Most of those people live in urban areas; the problem is significantly worse in rural locations. Becoming a physician is a noble endeavor, but without structural support, many talented students will pursue other fields. We can’t blame them.